Hi %$firstname$%,

An Air France Airbus 330 went down on a flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris last night as it was crossing the equator.

We don’t have enough info to speculate in a useful way. At this point, all speculation is wild speculation. Wild speculation only fuels anxiety for no benefit. Isn’t this the only jet airline to go down over the Atlantic in the last ten years?

The next job is to find the plane, and if the ocean is not too deep, recover the parts. Then, piece the plane together and figure out the cause. Then figure a fix for what caused it. That will take months if not years. And only after that time will significant information be available.

Someone emailed saying it seems foreign-made airliners are crashing more. I looked up the stats at www.airsafe.com and found the following rates (number of fatal accidents per million flights):

A-300 0.54
A-310 1.27
A-320 0.13


Compare that to the 737 at 0.36, the 757 at 0.30, the 767 at 0.40. Based on those numbers, the A-320 compares favorably with all the Boeing-built planes.

Comparing the A-330/340 0.0 (obviously this accident is going to change that rate) with the 777. Until this accident, the A-330 was fatal accident-free. The 777 has had an accident but not a fatal one.

Speculation that lightning or storms caused the accident is completely irresponsible, and reporting that something "might" have caused the accident gets reporters a story. But any focus you give this speculation will only cause anxiety for no useful reason whatsoever.

We have no significant information whatsoever. Ignore media reports which speculate based on insignificant information. They will only cause you pointless distress.

Bottom line: focus - at this point - on this accident is pointless.

Yours truly,

Capt Tom   more »

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