Balancing Risk Versus Reward



For years, I have been preaching that when flying to a country where you would not buy a car, or you would not be comfortable having a medical operation, you should understand that -- even at the most basic level -- flying is safer than driving. Yet, the level of safety may be less than what we expect in technically advanced countries.



The main reason I have been saying this is so, when there is an accident in some Third World country, it has nothing to do with the kind of airline flying you will be doing. For most of us, an accident in a Third World country is not relevant. It should not lead to anxiety.



But what if you want to travel to a Third World country. If the trip is something you really want to do, or something you must do, there is no reason to hesitate. Only understand that the level of safety may be a bit different.



If the reward is great, the risk may be worth taking



When there is something you really want to do, the question of risk becomes less important. When I was in the Air Force, I flew a jet fighter that was a killer. Four of the thirteen pilots in my training group were killed in peacetime training flights in the first two years after we completed training. We all knew it was dangerous. We did it anyway. We did it because we wanted to.



In terms of risk, clearly it was not a wise thing to do. But operating the fastest vehicle in the world at the limit without going over the limit, into disaster, is addictive. It isn't easy to give it up.



It would be incorrect to say we knew what we were doing. Someone has said the definition of an optimist is a fighter pilot who doesn't smoke. But it wasn't just optimism. It had to do with betting on our ability to handle the situation. Each of us believed we could do it. Each of us thought, though someone else might not be able to play on 'the edge of the envelope' day in and day out and survive, 'I can'.



There were no guarantees. It was a bet we placed on ourselves. Though none of us were absolutely sure, we were willing to put ourselves to the test in a kind of 'trial by fire'. Simply to engage in the risk was a reward in itself. Just to commit ones self to such a test constituted one level of proof. But the proof each of us was looking for was there was no one who could do something we couldn't do. It was important to prove that to yourself. That was the reward driving the taking of the risk.



At the other end of the spectrum stands the person who is flooded with anxiety when looking up in the sky and seeing an airplane. But even starting from that point, we can make it possible for you to fly.



The SOAR Course is designed to produce just a bit of what Tom Wolfe called in his book on test pilots and astronauts 'The Right Stuff' in people who have trouble with any risk at all. We don't want to turn anxious fliers into astronauts or test pilots. We just want to produce enough of 'The Right Stuff' to make it possible to deal with the incredibly small risk of flying a modern jet airliner.



From what I've seen, people who are anxious don't like to think about 'relative safety'. They want 'absolute safety'. They are accustomed to thinking in oversimplified categories of 'safe' and 'unsafe' even though such categories are only appropriate for children who are not yet ready to deal with the world as it is: a world of complexity in which everything has some risk, and some things have some reward. When confronted with the fact that absolute safety does not exist, the anxious person tends toward avoidance.



Avoidance of thinking and avoidance of doing



One form of avoidance is to avoid thinking about relative safety. This is done by lumping everything together, and claiming relative safety isn't worth thinking about. 'When it's your time, it's your time; there's nothing you can do about it.' This fatalistic illusion, at least, provides a benefit: it gives the person the freedom to participate in life.



Avoidance of doing; agoraphobia. When anxiety can't be controlled by controlling their world, the person opts for a smaller and smaller world, in an ongoing search for sufficient control. It isn't that they feel secure in their tiny world, always staying at home; it's just that they can't get their world any smaller.



OK. So it causes anxiety to think about relative risk. Sure, it would be nice if absolute safety existed. But it doesn't. Let's be grown ups; let's understand that absolute safety is for kids; that what parents tell their kids: 'Everything will be fine'. But now that we are grown up, let's not skirt the issue. Risk exists. Some choices are risker than others. And some things that involve risk are rewarding; they are things we want to do.



If we don't go to the trouble to accept some anxiety and to think about risks versus rewards, we don't maximize either.



Don't lump all airlines into the same category



The airlines know that people choose to fly one airline over another if the fare is $1.00 cheaper. That is why the seats are so close together. To charge a bit less, airline 'A' jams the seats closer together. They get more business, so airline 'B' jams their seats even closer together and charges an even lower fare. They get more business. This continues until the amount of room in your seat is absurd. If there were a federal minimum seat distance, and this hyper-competition ended, a ticket might cost one percent more.



The same thing happens with safety. Before deregulation, the airlines had safety departments which tried to figure out what might cause an accident and do something to prevent it before it happened. Now, it is only after an accident that measures are taken to prevent THAT ONE from happening again.



Though it would be nice for there to be some organization that was into prevention of accidents other than the Airline Pilots Association (because when they ask for safety, they get accused of featherbedding) we should not underestimate the value of fixing things after an accident. Since we have been flying airplanes for over 100 years, just about everything that can happen has happened, and been fixed.



Sort of. There are things that have caused accidents which the FAA, because it is so political, has not fixed, such as runway incursions. The FAA, year after year, says runway incursions are their number one priority. Number one priority to do what? Nothing ever happens. They just keep studying the problem.



And nothing will happen until there is -- not just one of these little accidents -- but one huge accident. THEN there will be political pressure to get that particular job done.



Look at 9/11. Everyone in the industry knew security was a joke. After 9/11, some things got done. We have gotten the job done of preventing terrorists from doing exactly what they did on 9/11. But we have done little to prevent terrorists from doing something different.



This is neither the best of all possible worlds nor the worst of all possible worlds. Safety is not as good as it could be, but neither is it as bad as it could be. As I said, safety is relative. It is relative to money. It is relative to politics.



My point of view may be different from yours, but if I have looked at the options, and considered them, and made the best choice I can make, if something still goes wrong, at least I'll know I did my best. That helps me with anxiety.



Want to grapple with the question? The message board has tips on choosing an airline wisely.



Want to make your world bigger? Everything you need is available. Start by clicking here.



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'Take Me Along' Helps



Hi Tom.



I'm writing to you from Cape Town, South Africa. The 20 hour flight came and went. It was just fantastic. I slept, ate and read my papers. Not a sign of any stress. My boyfriend couldn't believe it!!



I did listen to your 'Take Me Along' MP3 and that helped so much during the first leg of the journey.



Now I can start enjoying the sun and surf!



Thanks again for everything :)


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